Swiss tourism - summer 2026 under difficult circumstances

For the 2026 summer season, BAK Economics anticipates a decline in overnight stays for the first time since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the tourism forecast commissioned by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), 24.9 million overnight stays are expected for the summer season (-255,000, -1.0% compared to 2025). The main reason is weaker demand from long-haul markets. The Iran-Iraq War is impacting international travel and increasing the cost of long-distance trips. The competitive analysis paints an extremely heterogeneous picture of Swiss tourism, ranging from internationally leading destinations to those with significant room for improvement.

Iran war puts a strain on distant markets

After several years of sustained growth, demand from long-haul markets is expected to decline significantly for the first time. BAK Economics forecasts a drop of

3.7 percent (-246,000). The effects of the Iran-Iraq War are evident across multiple factors. While airspace closures initially hampered travel, the impact of rising oil and kerosene prices is now increasingly evident. This is making long-haul travel more expensive overall, and the effects are no longer limited to individual source markets.

Asia remains the hardest hit region. India and Southeast Asian countries are particularly suffering from restrictions on air traffic via the major international hubs in the Middle East. At the same time, many countries in the region are heavily dependent on energy imports from the Persian Gulf and are therefore more vulnerable to the economic consequences of current developments. China, on the other hand, is proving comparatively robust, as it is less affected due to direct flight connections and a lower reliance on air traffic via the Middle East. Slight growth is also still expected from the USA. However, higher airfares and a dampened consumer sentiment are slowing the momentum of what has been the most important growth driver for long-haul markets in recent years.

Domestic demand stabilizes, Europe remains robust

Domestic and, to some extent, European demand are having a stabilizing effect. Higher airfares and the ongoing uncertainty in international travel are likely to lead some travelers to opt for destinations closer to home. This benefits both domestic holidays and trips within Europe.

BAK Economics expects domestic demand to grow by 0.5 percent (+58,000). At the same time, however, Swiss households are under pressure. Private consumption is growing less dynamically than last year, while higher inflation is putting a strain on real incomes.

European demand is expected to continue its positive trend from most countries of origin. Overall, however, a slight decline of 1.0 percent (-68,000) is anticipated. This is primarily due to the exceptionally strong performance of last summer. Summer 2025 benefited from several major events. Demand from the United Kingdom, in particular, is expected to be lower, as the special effect of the UEFA Women's European Championship will no longer be present.

New competitive analysis by BAK Economics for tourism destinations

With the BAK Tourism Destination Competitiveness Index (TDCI), BAK Economics has developed a new analytical tool that systematically evaluates and compares the competitiveness of destinations. This approach allows for comparisons between 240 Swiss and international destinations in the Alpine region. In conjunction with this, BAK Economics is launching BAK Tourism Intelligence, an innovative, AI-powered analytical tool for tourism destinations. This online tool helps destinations identify their strengths, weaknesses, and development potential, as well as clearly assess their current positioning, and supports them in prioritizing strategic options.

Swiss tourism: Top level at the top, but strong disparities

According to the TDCI, numerous Swiss destinations boast high quality and a strong competitive position. Switzerland is among the very best, providing the top three and nine of the top ten destinations in the Alpine region. At the same time, there is still room for improvement in the mid-range and among many smaller destinations. Structural weaknesses include the insufficient exploitation of revenue potential and the comparatively short length of stay. In contrast, the long-term potential of Swiss destinations remains particularly strong. This is primarily due to the favorable visitor demographics, with a high proportion of domestic guests as well as visitors from long-haul and growth markets.