Destimetrics - From Hot To Cold At Western Mountain Destinations; Very Strong Fall Gives Way To Chilly Winter Forecast – For Now

A very golden fall with strong occupancy and rate in both September and October left mountain lodging properties on pace to finish the summer season on a high note as visitors shifted their mountain travel plans from the pricier month of August to the more attractive rates offered during the fall. However, economic pressures and memories of last season’s dismal snowfall are combining to significantly dampen occupancy and rates for the first five months of the upcoming winter according to DestiMetrics monthly Market Briefing from Inntopia released yesterday.

“We’ve known for a couple of months that the full summer was going to finish very strong despite the wobble in August,” confirmed Tom Foley, director of Business Intelligence for Inntopia. “Notable summer patterns showed shorter or midweek stays during dates when daily rates were high in the peak months while economic pressures continued to have an influence and nudged many visitors into fall dates offering lower rates and the opportunity for extending their length-of-stay based on more compelling pricing,” he continued. “But, and it is a big one, that ‘snow hangover’ we talk about after a tough snow year is very apparent in the data collected through Sept. 30 and this winter is running well behind last year….and the five worst snow years since 2005.

Golden September crowning an impressive summer

In a year-over-year comparison to last September, occupancy for the month was up 6.6 percent, the Average Daily Rate (ADR) was up a substantial 9.6 percent and the combination of both delivered an aggregated 16.7 percent gain in revenue for the month. As of Sept. 30, occupancy for the full summer was up two percent with increases in all months except August. Daily rates climbed six percent with the strong gains posted in September and October. Growth in both occupancy and ADR provided a seasonal 8.2 percent gain in summer revenues.

Winter struggling

Occupancy on-the-books for November through March as of Sept. 30 is down 8.3 percent with declines in all five months, ranging from a 4.6 percent dip in February to a dramatic 17.1 percent in March. November is essentially flat while the crucial month of December is down 6.9 percent. Despite the tepid numbers, on-the-books ADR for the five months crept up 1.4 percent with every month but December posting higher rates. Only December is showing a decrease—down 3.5 percent. The slight seasonal uptick in occupancy is not sufficient to offset the lower occupancy, and properties are currently facing a seven percent decline in winter revenues.

Brief economic summary

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been consistently strong, it dropped a sharp 4.3 percent during September as investors watched for indicators that the national debt and spending were impacting international confidence in the US economy.

Job Creation slowed in September and the numbers from July and August were adjusted downward leading to a decline in July jobs and nudging the National Unemployment Rate up to 4.2 percent.

The uneven economic indicators continued to rattle consumers and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) tracked by the Conference Board dropped to its lowest level since April 2014.

“Economic pressure is playing a big part in how consumers are behaving in their mountain travel planning,” noted Foley. “And while we don’t cover it in detail, we can’t overlook the increase in interest rates last month and that is making credit card debt—the primary source of consumer travel spending—considerably more expensive. Although daily room rates this summer were strong, bargain hunting behavior has been apparent since May when months with higher prices were recording shorter stays than usual and the more value-priced months of September and October outperformed all other months since June.”

Comparing winter benchmarks for the past 21 years

Concerns about the sluggish start for the upcoming winter prompted the Market Briefing to do a retrospective comparison for bookings and occupancy in the past 21 years for bookings following the five poorest seasons for snowfall and the five best seasons for snowfall. Following the five worst snow seasons, as of Sept. 30, those years averaged a slight 0.5 percent gain in occupancy and a modest 2.5 percent gain in ADR. Following the five best snowfall seasons, occupancy edged up one percent while rates moved up four percent—allowing lodging properties to drive slightly higher rates with memories of a good season still fresh. In sharp contrast, in a year-over-year comparison of Winter 2026-27, as of Sept. 30 occupancy is down 8.3 percent with a modest 1.4 percent increase in ADR.

“Even with a month of data to add to the final tally, this summer is clearly going to be one for the record books,” offered Foley. “It seems contrarian to talk about price sensitivity during a record-setting season, but those records hide changes to how bookings are being made—with shorter stays and value options dominating summer and now for winter. So, it really is all about the upcoming 2026-27 season, which is clearly facing multiple challenges including sustained economic pressure on consumers, a strong ‘snow hangover’ from last season, and unmistakable pushback from consumers for average nightly rates around $750,” he continued.

Foley went on to clarify that “even though rates have eased slightly since Aug. 31, consumers remain unconvinced at this point about committing to a booking—even with all the hopes for a strong El Nino snowfall pattern—particularly if it manifests as predicted,” he observed. “If it does, southern destinations are likely to capture a winning season while destinations further north and west may not do as well. But as always, weather is uncontrollable so it is likely that value added promotions and rate adjustments will need to be part of the equation this winter to get skiers and riders booking,” he concluded.